Washington just turned export control into a toll booth: 15% skim on China AI chips.

Drop: A U.S. official says Nvidia and AMD agreed to give Washington 15% of revenue from China sales of specific AI chips (Nvidia H20, AMD MI308) to secure export licenses.

Crack: This is an unusual blend of export control and de-facto taxation, raising questions about legal footing and whether mid-tier chips still pose national-security risk. Nvidia has not confirmed the 15% figure; AMD has not commented.

Surge: U.S. leverage over AI supply chains increases while chipmakers regain a path to China under tighter terms. Commerce has called H20 “the fourth-best chip” for China, and licenses have begun issuing.

Foresight 

Flash Expect copy-and-paste “revenue for licenses” models to extend to other strategic tech within 6 to 12 months, likely with tiers tied to capability and end-use certification. Track license terms, not only bans.

Neural Trigger

If fees become policy, where is the line between a security tool and an industrial tax?

Source: Reuters